Based on data from March 1, 2010
Current Tactical Model perspective
Composite: Bearish
Trend: Neutral (weakening)
Valuation: Bearish
Sentiment: Neutral
Equities bounced back in February following January’s declines although most remain slightly negative year-to-date. Our tactical portfolios held up well in the January’s pullback but did not participate in February’s rally as we remain defensive based on continued deterioration in our models. The net effect of this is favorable year-to-date versus our fully invested portfolios.
Last month we discussed how the correction that began in January had helped reduce excessive optimism and, when combined with good earnings, valuations were moving closer to their long-term average. We expressed our hope that the correction would ultimately set the stage for a continuation of the bull market as sentiment became more supportive, the market less over-bought, and valuations pulled back within a more normal range. The February rebound reversed those improvements (prematurely by our measures), leaving the market vulnerable to further correction once this bounce fades.
Perhaps the 2010 correction is over, and the bull market that began in March 2009 is set to resume. Only time will tell. Based on the current weight-of-the-evidence, our tactical portfolios remain defensive, holding considerable cash and well hedged through a combination of covered calls and protective puts. We may diversify our hedge to include inverse ETFs in lieu of protective put options.
As always, our long portfolio is based on Upgrading. We therefore emphasize domestic mid-cap funds and ETFs, especially mid-cap Value. We have modest exposure to core foreign funds and some speculative exposure to diversified emerging markets ETFs.
At this time, we are looking for a trigger to increase long exposure and/or reduce our defenses. That trigger could be a thrust higher, but we expect that a continued correction would be required for our models to turn more bullish.
Summary: We remain cautious. Our Tactical portfolios held up well in January’s pullback due to considerable defensive posturing – and did not participate in February’s bounce for the same reason. The net effect of this is favorable year-to-date versus fully invested portfolios.
Renewed trend strength could trigger a buy, but the weight of the evidence leans towards a continuation of the correction before the bull market resumes. For now, our tactically portfolios are defensive.
Glad you took a stand, there is nothing worse than a straddle the fence report, thats says nothing.